Review: Interception

Interception: The Secrets of Modern Sports Betting

Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow are two of the sharpest (word choice deliberate) and most experienced minds in sports betting. This made me have very high expectations for Interception, their most recent book on the sports betting ecosystem. I’m delighted to say that it only took a few pages for it to outright exceed them.

For me specifically, it was a little less of an experience in that I already knew most of the plain facts stated within (the tricks you think will work will not, sportsbooks offer far more markets than they can realistically handicap so they use restrictions to ‘counter’, etc…) But I still found it enlightening and illuminating. And for a newcomer it’d be vastly more so. The one thing I had against it was how its tone was a little snarky for my taste, but that’s a mild stylistic complaint.

Anyway, you need to read this to understand sports betting and how it’s going. This book has also made me ever-more convinced that a modest minimum bet liability law would be extremely beneficial to the sports betting ecosystem, but that’s a topic for another post. As it stands, it’s the best sports betting book I’ve read.

Review: Pilot Error

Pilot Error

The first Fuldapocalypse review of 2024 is of a nonfiction book by pilot and aviation commentary Sylvia Wrigley. Pilot Error looks at the plane crashes where it was obviously the pilot’s fault. And not being unlucky or something, but just really, really bad.

There’s a reason why most of the crashes in this book are private light planes and why many are not fatal. It’s because Wrigley is by her own admission trying for dark humor and some of the most horrendous crashes like the pilot trying to land blindfolded for a bet/dare on a flight with dozens of passengers are not funny but just horrifying.

So in this you get drunks, idiots, and drunken idiots. It’s enough to make you glad that 99.9999% of the people in a very demanding role are not like the ones in this book.

2023 In Review

So Fuldapocalypse closes the door on 2023. It was a good year for me if not necessarily for this blog. The best thing I did in 2023 is publish All Union, which was in my head for years. I’m still working on a successor, but first usual writers issues happened, then AI Art (which I love) happened, then Rogue Trader happened. So my dream of getting multiple full length entries in that series out the door didn’t happen.

Oh well. Still had a good year. See you next January!

Review: If We’d Just Got That Penalty

If We’d Just Got That Penalty

The words “Sports Alternate History” got me interested in the new Sea Lion Press anthology If We’d Just Got That Penalty. I read it-and the result was sadly as disappointing as the New York Jets season. (Which Jets season? Answer is “Everything since 1968 is valid”). So in the interest of fair and honest criticism, I’m giving an honest and (hopefully) fair review.

I’ll start out by saying that sports AH and short stories are an uphill climb. Sporting AH tends to be fairly trinketized due to the end result often plausibly nothing more than different results on a trophy or standings chart and the divergences just “if the ball only moved three inches to the left.” That being said, at best this has middling short stories.

At worst, there’s ones like a really convoluted pure exposition “tale” involving changes to both Haiti and various forms of “football”. It’s a sincerely well thought out and well-researched premise that ends up being executed in the worst possible manner. Others have the impression of being benchmarked against internet alternate history, which is kind of like benchmarking your isekai story against jumpchains or your basketball team against the Washington Generals.

SLP has made some good alternate history, but this unfortunately isn’t it.

Cass the Heroes OC

Cassia Orsellio from Rogue Trader is one of my favorite characters in it. Yet she reminds me a lot of a Fire Emblem Heroes character: Not (just) a Fire Emblem character but a Heroes OC. She shares the following traits with the new introductions from that mobile game:

  • Is a mysterious, powerful (literal and figurative) noblewoman.
  • Is humanoid but still not human in some ways.
  • Has a central gimmick (in this case her warp eye).
  • Has a sort of “overdesigned JRPG” style about her (looking a lot more like an eastern RPG character than the western fantasy/sci fi ones of the rest of the cast).

A Thousand Words: The Sting

The Sting

The Robert Redford classic The Sting is a movie about Great Depression-era con artists pulling a dangerous game against a powerful mobster. A well-regarded movie, I would reckon it’s one of the best films to center around sports betting. Why?

Well, the plot that the protagonists are (supposedly) pulling involved horse racing, and the central scheme of outrunning the official updates to place advantageous bets is something I knew very well. Combined with excellent cinematography and performances, this is a 70s masterpiece.

Review: The New Maneuver Warfare Handbook

Say there’s a crusty football coach who ran teams back in the days of Jim Thorpe and leather helmets. You’re at a coaches analytics and strategy meeting. There’s Bill Walsh and there’s Paul Zimmerman, talking about the evolution of the NFL. Then in comes this ninety-something coach who says “You know, you can throw the ball if you have to”, because in his time and mind, the forward pass was a novelty. But even by the start of the Super Bowl era, even in run-dominant periods postwar, it simply wasn’t.

This is how I felt when reading the New Maneuver Warfare Handbook by the infamous William Lind.

It starts with a pompous retelling of the generations of war and has a paragraph where he says “4GW” is not insurgency or guerilla war, but rather war against non-state actors. In other words, it’s not COIN/guerilla war, just war against insurgents and guerillas. Ok.

One running theme in histories of this Pentagon Reformer is that Lind, regardless of merits, was a terrible salesman. And it comes across here, where he keeps referring back to some German general or another he met in 197X and generally coming across as loving the sound of his own voice. His dismissal of every small unit encounter in Iraq/Afghanistan as “bumping into the enemy and then calling for fire” with the implication that only the equivalent of a 100% perfect never spotted run in a stealth game would be good enough for him.

Only about eighty pages of the 200 page book are the “main event”, and the amount of actual substance there is less. Lind recommends the fellow Special Tactics press books in the style of an internet video maker getting the sponsorships out of the way. Which is ironic because those, with their small and clear focuses, are the antithesis of his work. Which here involves a lot of blathering and told-you-so with a huge dose of selection bias.

The many appendices, some of which are not written by Lind, are somewhat better. It’s important to note that the themes of realistic effective training, mission type command, and even maneuvering are not necessarily bad ones (even if I disagree with the particulars). The only problem is that this is about 3% useful stuff that can and has been said elsewhere and 97% self-important back-patting. There’s a reason why other maneuver war advocates considered Lind a liability.

December Update

So I’ve slowed down blogging. The biggest reason is me playing the new Rogue Trader video game. I’ll admit it’s a little raw and a combination of just being released and having a ton of moving parts has led to a giant case of Bethesdaitis, and thus to me maniacally saving and being prepared to redo entire arcs if not the whole game (not that I mind). But in spite of that it’s an awesome experience and is a side of Warhammer 40k that I hadn’t seen as much of before. The second biggest reason is me working on A Period of Cheating, which has gone great in a time of year that normally isn’t the best for writing.

Between those and my other responsibilities/pastimes, there just hasn’t been much time for reading and reviewing. But rest assured I’m well.